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A Time-Series Analysis of my Girlfriends Mood Swings Dr. Chad Broman’ ‘Department of Applied Psychological Machine Leaming, Cranberry-Lemon University, Pittsburgh, PA. USA Abstract Despite recent advances in active listening, date night, and extended pillow talk; it is becoming increasingly more difficult to forecast Tiffany’s mood. With more and more Playstation 5 exclusive games, it is becoming increasingly important to determine Tiffany’s mood before purchasing a new game and playing online Co-op with the boys every evening for a week straight. This paper aims to determine the optimal forecast model of my girlfriend’s drastically growing mood swings by comparing simple moving averages, to sextuple exponential smoothing and even an overly complicated Machine Learning model. Despite initial analysis showing non-stationarity and highly seasonal mood swings. the more simple models provided less riskier forecast predictions when planning a three day bender after Matt got divorced. Keywords: Relationships, Time Series Analysis, Forecast Modeling. Playstation 5 Exclusives 1. Introduction find her endlessly scrolling through reddit for memes. facebook or instagram for jealousy, and twitter to keep up on Traditional methods of determining whether Tiffany is in a all the public officials and celebrities she hates the most. good mood has produced wildly subjective results causing dangerous outcomes such as her taking three hours to 1.2 Purpose respond to a text, flaking on nettlix and chill plans or even most disastrously having to return a speed boat even though Ever since her best friends started having kids and she got it was a great deal and an even better investment. promoted to a stressful corporate position she was not trained Just asking her if she’s okay is not enough anymore. The for. it has become exponentially difficult to olan around only reliable method is to develop. test. verify. and Tiffany’s emotional highs and lows. This is becoming not implement an extensive forecasting model by analyzing only problematic but is a problem that needs to be solved historical Tiffany mood swing data. immediately. To dispel any misconceptions, it’s not about